Climate Sensitivity and Impacts

Narrowing the uncertainties in how Earth's climate will change in the future is one of the most pressing problems in all of science. I take a variety of approaches to address this problem, spanning detailed investigations of the physics controlling changes in the hydrologic cycle, to system-level analyses of the climate system which aim to reduce the uncertainty in Earth’s climate sensitivity.


  1. Lutsko, N. J. and Popp, M. (2019) Probing the Sources of Uncertainty in Transient Warming on Different Time‐Scales, in press at Geophysical Research Letters. Link
  2. Lutsko, N. J. and Cronin, T. W. (2018) Increase in Precipitation Efficiency with Surface Warming in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10: 2992 – 3010. Link.
  3. Lutsko, N. J. (2018) The Relationship Between Cloud Radiative Effect and Surface Temperature Variability at ENSO Frequencies in CMIP5 Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 45: 10599 – 10608. Link
  4. Lutsko, N. J. and Takahashi, K. (2018) What Can the Internal Variability of CMIP5 Models Tell Us About Their Climate Sensitivity? Journal of Climate, 31(13): 5051 – 5069. Link
  5. Popp, M. and Lutsko, N. J. (2017) Quantifying the zonal-mean structure of tropical precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(18): 9470 – 9478 2017GL075235. Link

Large-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics

My research on atmospheric dynamics combines theory, numerical simulations and observational analyses, as I seek to improve our understanding of the surface climate today, our ability to predict how it will change in the future and our interpretations of how it has changed over Earth’s history.


  1. Lutsko, N. J., Baldwin, J. W., and Cronin, T. W. (2019) The Impact of Large-Scale Orography on Northern Hemisphere Winter Synoptic Temperature Variability. Journal of Climate, 32(18): 5799 – 5814. Link
  2. Lutsko, N. J., Marshall, J., and Green, B. (2019) Modulation of Monsoon Circulations by Cross-Equatorial Ocean Heat Transport. Journal of Climate, 32(13): 3471 – 3485. Link
  3. Lutsko, N. J. and Popp, M. (2018) The Influence of Meridional Gradients in Insolation and LongWave Optical Depth on the Climate of a Gray Radiation GCM. Journal of Climate, 31(10): 7803 – 7822. Link
  4. Lutsko, N. J. (2018) The Response of a Dry Atmosphere to ENSO-like Heating: Superrotation and the Breakdown of Linear Theory. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 75(1): 3 – 20. Link
  5. Lutsko, N. J., Held, I. M., Zurita-Gotor, P. and O'Rourke, A. K. (2017). Lower Tropospheric Eddy Momentum Fluxes in Idealized Models and Reanalysis Data. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74(11): 3787 – 3797. Link
  6. Lutsko, N. J. and Held, I. M. (2016). The Response of an Idealized Atmosphere to Orographic Forcing: Zonal vs Meridional Propagation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73(9): 3701 – 3718. Link
  7. Lutsko, N. J., Held, I. M., and Zurita-Gotor, P. (2015). Applying the Fluctuation–Dissipation Theorem to a Two-Layer Model of Quasi-Geostrophic Turbulence. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72(8): 3161 – 3177. Link